Climate Dynamics and Predictability

I am a postdoctoal researcher at NOAA/GFDL and Princeton University working with Dr. Nat Johnson. Currently, my research interests are the dynamics of tropical-extratropical teleconnections and its relationship with extreme weather predictability from a dynamical system perspective. I am also interested in numerical modeling (e.g., GPU dynamical core and idealized model), artificial intelligence (e.g., Deep Learning) and statistical method. Detailed information can be referred to my “Publications”.

I got my PhD in June 2019 from Colorado State University, where my advisors were Dr. Elizabeth Barnes and Dr. Eric Maloney.

In summer 2022, I will begin an Assistant Professorship in the Department of Atmospheric Science, National Taiwan Unviersity.

Recent Work

Tropical-extratropical Interaction

The dynamics of tropical-extratropical teleconnection has been well-studied since 1980 through the lens of linear Rossby wave theory. However, it's connection with predictability of extratropical weather and ensemble spread remain uncertain. In our research, we demonstrate the spread of a dynamical system (such as hydrological extreme or extratropical geopotential height) can be explained through linear wave dynamics, which bridges the gap of deterministic forecast and probabilistic forecast link

S2S prediction with Fluctuation Dissipation Theorem (FDT)

The use of fluctuation dissipation theorem can be traced back to Annus mirabilis in 1905. The year that Albert Einstein published 5 legendary paper which changed how we observe the world. Fluctuation Dissipation Theorem is one of them which transfers Newton's Law from a deterministic perspective to a probabilistic perspective. Similar idea can be applied to atmospheric science research...(manuscript to be submitted)

Atmospheric Rivers in a warmer climate

Atmospheric rivers are characterized by strong moisture flux, which brings high societal costs through the disastrous flooding that often accompanies their occurrence. Since previous research has identified the competing roles of moisture and circulation. It is therefore important to understand the change in both dynamics and thermodynamics over different climate states especially for hydrological extreme. In this research, we use large ensemble simulations of GFDL new generation climate model and identify the dependence of two competing processes on geographical locations and the signals of emergence. (manuscript in preparation)

Machine Learning and Climate Science

Machine Learning is a powerful tool which enables scientists to deal with non-Gaussian data. In climate research, non-Gaussian data exists almost everywhere including cumulus process or any kind of nonlinear feedback. However, it has been dubbed as black box since its development. In our study, we not only leverage machine learning to the extended prediction but also use it to advance our physical interpretation for a given dataset. link

Recent Publications

2021

Chen Y.-L.,and co-authors: Effect of the MJO on East Asian winter rainfall as revealed by a SVD analysis (J. Clim., under revision)

Zhang L.,and co-authors: Using large ensembles to elucidate the possible roles of Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation in the Southern Ocean 36-yr SST trend (to be submitted)

Jia L.,and co-authors: Skillful seasonal prediction of North American summertime hot extremes(to be submitted)

Tseng K.-C., and co-authors: The response of atmospheric river to a warmer climate(to be submitted)

Tseng K.-C., and co-authors: Are multiseasonal forecasts of atmospheric rivers possible? (submitted to GRL)

Bushuk B., and co-authors: Seasonal prediction and predictability of regional Antarctic sea ice (in press)

Zhang G., and co-authors: Seasonal Predictability of Baroclinic Wave Activity: Toward Predicting Risks of Extratropical Extremes (submitted to npj-Climate and Atmospheric Science)

Tseng K.-C., N. C. Johnson., E. D. Maloney, E. A. Barnes, and S. B. Kapnick: Mapping Large-scale Climate Variability to Hydrological Extremes: An Application of the Linear Inverse Model to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal prediction J. Clim., 34(11), 4207--4225 link

Tseng K.-C., E. A. Barnes, and E. D. Maloney: The important role of the MJO for extratropical variability in observations and the CMIP5 climate models (submitted to JGR-Atmosphere)

2020

Tseng K.-C., E. D. Maloney and E. A. Barnes, 2020: The consistency of MJO teleconnection patterns on interannual timescales J. Clim., 33, 3471–-3486 link

Tseng K.-C., E. A. Barnes, and E. D. Maloney, 2020: The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of midlatitude circulation J. Clim., 33, 2131–-2147 link